RL165 — 2023 Market and Economic Update
In this episode of the Retirement Lifestyle Show, Eric Olson, Roshan Loungani and Adrian Nicholson go through recent updates in employment numbers, inflation, and interest rates. They discuss what to expect from the current investment landscape and how investors can use this information to make concrete investment decisions.
[00:00] Introduction
[02:31] News From the Bureau of Labor and Statistics
[07:56] How High-Interest Rates Lower Money Supply
[11:10] Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates
[14:20] Recession Risk and Mixed Signals
[16:22] How Markets Respond to Good News
[21:18] Thoughts on a Possible Recession
[25:21] Why You Need to be Adding Money to the Markets
[27:10] Should You Take Money Out of the Markets?
[32:45] Profit Forecasts
[37:20] Strongest Performers in the Markets
[42:12] Morningstar's Second Quarter Outlook
[45:26] The Benefits of Having a Diversified Portfolio
[47:20] Banking Risk and the Banking Crisis
[51:30] Current State of the Federal Reserve
[54:23] Parting Thoughts
For more links and the full show notes keep scrolling down!
Roshan Loungani can be reached at roshan.loungani@aretewealth.com or at 202-536-4468.
Erik Olson can be reached at erik.olson@aretewealth.com or 815-940-4652.
Adrian Nicholson can be reached at adrian.nicholson@aretewealth.com or at 703-915-8905.
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Full Show Notes:
Labor Force and Employment Numbers in 2023
In 2022, the US labor markets remained stubbornly tight even though the Federal Reserve raised interest rates rapidly to cool demand and tame inflation. In 2023, the demand for workers is unusually strong, but what's even more interesting is the aggregate hours worked monthly. Eric reveals that there is currently a 0.1% decline. So, if people are hiring more then it's obvious that there's more to be done - and you'd likely see the aggregate hours worked rise along with all the hiring happening. Yet the total number of hours being worked is decreasing. What does that imply? Maybe it implies that business owners realized they've been overtaxing their people by working crazy hours. And now they're hiring more because the current workforce values having a little more work-life balance. However, it also might mean that there's just less to be done.
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All opinions expressed by podcast hosts and guests are solely their own. While based on information that they believe is reliable, neither Arete Wealth nor its affiliates warrant its completeness or accuracy, nor do their opinions reflect the opinion of Arete Wealth. This podcast is for general informational purposes only, and should not be regarded as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Before making any decisions, consult a professional.
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